The honest answer: investing usually wins
With HECS indexation capped at WPI (historically 2–4%), the hurdle rate investing has to clear is low. A diversified ETF portfolio returning 7% long-term delivers 4–6% after tax at typical marginal brackets — comfortably above indexation. Paying HECS at 3% indexation is mathematically equivalent to an investment returning 3% guaranteed after tax.
After-tax return comparison
| Option | Gross return | Tax treatment | After-tax return (32.5% MTR) |
|---|---|---|---|
| HECS early repayment | 3% (avoided indexation) | None — no income taxed | 3.0% |
| High-interest savings | 4.5% | Marginal tax on interest | ~3.0% |
| Mortgage offset account | 6% (avoided interest) | None — no income taxed | 6.0% |
| Diversified ETF (long-term) | 7–8% | ~15% effective (capital gains discount) | 5.9–6.8% |
| Concessional super contribution | 7% (same return) | Tax saving of (MTR – 15%) | ~7% + tax uplift |
| Emergency fund | 4.5% | Marginal tax on interest | ~3.0% (but optionality value) |
The scenarios where HECS repayment wins
- Your only alternative is a bank savings account at below 4% pre-tax. Even then, the win is tiny.
- Indexation spikes above historical WPI (e.g. 5%+). Unlikely under current rules but theoretically possible.
- You're targeting a home loan approval within 6 months and your HECS balance is under $5,000. Paying to clear fully can unlock $50k+ of borrowing power.
- Psychological clarity. The peace of mind of being debt-free matters to some people more than a 2% investment outperformance.
The behavioural case against investing
The maths says invest. Behaviour says many people invest poorly, selling at market lows and buying at highs. If you know you'll panic-sell an ETF portfolio in the next crash, HECS repayment is a risk-free 3% that you won't self-sabotage. Be honest about which category you're in.